JANUSEELive map · market receipts

Every world event gets a market receipt.

Connecting…
Face I · The past

Looked back

Measured moves after each event

    Face II · The future

    Looking ahead

    AI calls, graded in public

    Coming up

      AI calls

        30 days · hourly · pins are tracked events

        How JANUSEE measures

        1. Events come from public feeds. Earthquakes from USGS, disasters from GDACS, volcanoes from NASA EONET, and the Fed's published meeting calendar. Each one is labelled live or scheduled.
        2. Big events get a receipt. Quakes of M6.0+, GDACS orange and red alerts, and every Fed decision. The receipt takes the first market close at or after the event, then again +5 minutes, +1 hour and +24 hours later — so the window measured is always after the event, never around it. On older events only hourly data survives, so the first close can be up to an hour late; the receipt names the resolution it used.
        3. Every move is compared with a normal move. "Normal" is the median move for the same window over recent weeks. A receipt that says 0.8× means the move was smaller than usual — noise. 3× or more is an outlier.
        4. The AI calls direction only. Up, down or flat for Bitcoin over the next hour and day, made before the outcome exists. It never produces numbers. After the window closes, the call is graded against the measured move.
        5. The AI is compared with a dumb strategy. Its hit rate sits next to "always say flat". If it can't beat that, you'll see it.
        6. History is never forecast after the fact. Past events loaded to fill the map have receipts but no AI call.

        Prices: Yahoo Finance (1-minute data for the last 7 days, 5-minute for 60 days, hourly beyond). Gold, oil and S&P use futures and show "closed" when those markets are shut.